Reliance Q4 Results Today: Key Highlights to Watch in Jio, Retail, and More

Introduction

Reliance Industries Limited (RIL), India’s largest company by market capitalisation, is set to announce its fourth-quarter results for the fiscal year 2024–25 (Q4 FY25, January–March 2025) on April 25, 2025, after a board meeting scheduled to approve its standalone and consolidated financial results. Led by Chairman and Managing Director Mukesh Ambani, the oil-to-telecom conglomerate is expected to deliver a mixed performance, with its consumer businesses—Reliance Jio and Reliance Retail—likely to drive growth, while the oil-to-chemicals (O2C) segment faces headwinds from volatile crude oil prices. The board will also consider recommending a final dividend for FY25, adding to investor anticipation. With RIL’s shares trading 0.99% higher at ₹1,314.50 on the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) at 9:40 AM on April 25, 2025, the market is keenly watching for key updates. This article highlights five critical areas to monitor in RIL’s Q4 FY25 earnings, including Jio’s subscriber growth, retail segment trends, O2C performance, new energy initiatives, and dividend announcements, while providing a comprehensive analysis of the company’s performance and outlook.

Reliance Industries: A Diversified Conglomerate

RIL is a diversified powerhouse with operations spanning energy (O2C and oil & gas), telecommunications (Reliance Jio), retail (Reliance Retail), financial services (Jio Financial Services), and new energy ventures. As of April 25, 2025, RIL’s market capitalisation exceeds ₹17.24 trillion, making it India’s most valuable listed company. The company reported a robust Q3 FY25 performance, with a consolidated net profit of ₹21,804 crore (up 11.88% YoY) and revenue from operations of ₹243,865 crore (up 6.97% YoY), driven by strong growth in digital services and retail, despite a weaker O2C segment.

RIL’s Q4 results are expected to reflect a stable but mixed performance, with analysts forecasting a modest sequential profit growth but potential year-on-year challenges due to the O2C segment’s underperformance. According to Goldman Sachs, RIL’s Q4 core EBITDA is likely to remain flat sequentially, with market focus on retail growth trends and Jio’s tariff hike-driven revenue. The company’s ability to navigate global macroeconomic challenges, including elevated crude oil prices and geopolitical tensions, will be critical. Additionally, investor attention will centre on management commentary regarding future growth drivers, such as new energy initiatives and potential listings of Jio and Reliance Retail. Here are the five key areas to watch in RIL’s Q4 FY25 earnings.

1. Reliance Jio: Subscriber Growth and ARPU Trends

Reliance Jio, RIL’s telecommunications arm, remains a cornerstone of the company’s consumer business, contributing significantly to revenue and profitability. Jio is India’s largest telecom operator, with a subscriber base of 481.8 million as of Q4 FY24, including over 108 million True 5G users. In Q3 FY25, Jio reported a 7.4% YoY increase in average revenue per user (ARPU) to ₹195.10, driven by a tariff hike in July 2024 and an improved subscriber mix. Analysts expect Jio to sustain this momentum in Q4 FY25, with key metrics to monitor including:

• Subscriber Additions: Jio added 8.0 million subscribers in Q1 FY25 and is expected to report 3.5 million net additions in Q4, reversing a 3.8 million subscriber decline in October 2024, as per TRAI data. The growth is likely driven by Jio’s 5G rollout, which covers 85% of India’s 5G capacity, and the increasing adoption of JioAirFiber, its fixed wireless broadband service.
• ARPU Growth: Analysts project Jio’s ARPU to rise to ₹209 in Q4 FY25 from ₹203 in Q3, reflecting the residual impact of the July 2024 tariff hike and a shift toward fixed broadband subscribers. Goldman Sachs forecasts a 4% Qocbc revenue growth for Jio, outpacing competitors like Bharti Airtel, driven by tariff transmission and subscriber mix improvements.
• EBITDA and Margins: Jio’s EBITDA is estimated to grow 1.6% Qoq to ₹16,056 crore, with margins expanding by 10 basis points to 53.4%, supported by higher ARPU and operational efficiencies. Management commentary on the 5G rollout strategy, potential tariff hikes in FY26, and JioAirFiber’s subscriber ramp-up will be crucial for assessing long-term growth.

2. Reliance Retail: Growth Trends and Margin Outlook

Reliance Retail, India’s largest retailer, is another key growth engine for RIL, with a network of 19,102 stores and 77.4 million square feet of operating area as of Q3 FY25. The segment reported an 8.8% YoY revenue increase to ₹90,333 crore in Q3 FY25, driven by festive demand and growth across grocery, fashion, and consumer electronics. In Q4 FY25, Reliance Retail is expected to deliver steady performance, with analysts forecasting an 11% YoY EBITDA growth, supported by increased store footprint and better margins. Key areas to watch include:

• Revenue and Sales Growth: Goldman Sachs estimates a 6.5% YoY sales growth (excluding connectivity) in Q4 FY25, driven by the restructuring of the grocery business and the launch of fast-fashion formats like Yousta. The quarter’s performance may face a slight drag due to one fewer day compared to Q4 FY24, but footfalls, which reached 296 million in Q3, are expected to remain robust.
• EBITDA and Margin Expansion: Reliance Retail’s EBITDA margin improved to 8.6% in Q4 FY24, and analysts anticipate further gains in Q4 FY25 due to operating leverage and a premium product mix. The segment’s focus on premium formats, such as Fresh Signature, and partnerships like the India franchise for Saks Fifth Avenue, could enhance profitability.
• Strategic Initiatives: Management commentary on store expansion, digital commerce growth (via JioMart), and potential IPO plans for Reliance Retail will be closely scrutinised. A Reuters report suggests a later IPO timeline, making updates on listing plans critical. Isha Ambani, Executive Director of Reliance Retail Ventures, has emphasised customer-centric innovation, which could drive further market share gains.

Reliance Retail’s resilience amid a challenging retail environment, coupled with its omnichannel strategy, positions it as a leader. However, analysts caution that restructuring efforts may temporarily impact earnings, as noted by Goldman Sachs.

3. Oil-to-Chemicals (O2C) Segment: Navigating Volatility

The O2C segment, encompassing refining and petrochemicals, is RIL’s traditional cash cow but has faced challenges due to global demand-supply dynamics and volatile crude oil prices. In Q3 FY25, the O2C business showed resilience, with EBITDA supported by higher refining margins and domestic demand. However, analysts expect a weaker Q4 performance, with the following metrics in focus:

• EBITDA Decline: Nuvama Institutional Equities projects a 14% YoY EBITDA decline in Q4 FY25, driven by weaker product cracks and lower petrochemical spreads. Benchmark Singapore Gross Refining Margins (GRMS) dropped 58% YoY, reflecting global weakness, which could pressure profitability.
• Revenue and Margins: The O2C segment’s revenue is expected to remain flat sequentially, with margins impacted by reduced transportation fuel cracks. However, RIL’s feedstock flexibility and cost management may mitigate some losses, as noted by Mukesh Ambani in prior earnings calls.
• Management Commentary: Investors will seek updates on the crude oil price outlook, margin trends, and the impact of geopolitical tensions on energy markets. RIL’s CFO, Venkatachari Srikanth, previously highlighted volatility in crude and product prices, which remains a key theme.

The O2C segment’s performance is critical, as it accounts for a significant portion of RIL’s revenue. A LiveMint report suggests that higher crude oil prices could further pressure operating profits, making cost optimisation strategies essential.

4. New Energy Initiatives: Progress and Timelines

RIL’s new energy business, focused on solar, energy storage, green hydrogen, bio-energy, and wind, is a cornerstone of its ambition to achieve net carbon zero by 2035. The company’s first New Energy Giga-factory is on track to commence solar PV module production by the end of 2024, with 30GWh battery production planned by the second half of 2025. Key areas to watch include:

• Project Updates: Management commentary on the ramp-up of the Jamnagar Giga-factory complex and partnerships, such as the recently announced collaboration with Starlink, will be critical. Investors are also keen on potential tie-ups with platforms like Openai or Meta to expand AI offerings, which could enhance RIL’s clean energy solutions.
• Capital Expenditure: RIL’s disciplined approach to capital expenditure in new energy, as opposed to the O2C segment, has preserved returns on capital, according to CNBC TV18. Updates on investment plans and timelines will influence investor confidence.
• Sustainability Goals: Mukesh Ambani has emphasised RIL’s role in India’s clean energy transition, and progress toward sustainability targets will be a focal point. The new energy segment’s contribution to EBITDA remains limited but is expected to grow significantly in the coming years.

The new energy business is a long-term growth driver, and any positive updates could bolster RIL’s valuation, particularly as global demand for renewable energy rises.

5. Dividend Announcement and Financial Health

RIL has a consistent track record of rewarding shareholders, with a dividend of ₹10 per share declared in FY24, up from ₹9 in FY23 and ₹8 in FY22. The board’s decision on a final dividend for FY25, to be announced on April 25, 2025, is a key monitorable, with investors expecting a payout in line with or higher than previous years. Other financial metrics to watch include:

• Consolidated Profit and Revenue: Analysts estimate a consolidated net profit of ₹18,471 crore in Q4 FY25, little changed sequentially, with revenue growth supported by consumer businesses. NDTV Profit suggests margins may contract due to O2C weakness, but Jio and retail growth could offset this.
• EBITDA and Debt Levels: RIL’s Q4 EBITDA is projected to remain flat sequentially, with a consolidated EBITDA decline of 1.5% YoY due to O2C underperformance. The company’s debt levels, which increased due to investments in new energy and retail, will be scrutinised for sustainability.
• Cash Flow and Capex: RIL’s ability to generate strong cash flows from Jio and retail supports its capital-intensive projects. Updates on capex allocation, particularly for new energy, will influence investor sentiment.

The dividend announcement, coupled with RIL’s financial health, will signal management’s confidence in future cash flows. Posts on X by users like @stockse_ highlight expectations of a profit dip due to O2C, but optimism around Jio and retail growth.

Broader Industry Context

RIL’s Q4 results come amid a challenging global and domestic environment. The energy sector faces volatility due to geopolitical tensions and OPEC supply dynamics, impacting O2C margins. India’s telecom sector is consolidating, with Jio leading subscriber additions despite tariff hike-related churn. The retail sector benefits from rising consumption, but competition from players like the Tata Group and the Aditya Birla Group is intensifying. RIL’s new energy initiatives align with India’s renewable energy goals, positioning it to capitalise on long-term trends.

Risks and Considerations

Key risks include:

• O2C Weakness: Sustained low GRMS and petrochemical spreads could drag profitability.
• Subscriber Churn: Jio’s tariff hikes may lead to higher churn if competitors lower prices.
• Capex Pressures: Rising debt from new energy and retail investments could strain financials.
• Global Macro Risks: Geopolitical tensions and a potential US tariff impact under a Trump administration could affect RIL’s exports.

Investors should weigh these risks against RIL’s diversified portfolio and growth potential in consumer and new energy segments.

Conclusion

Reliance Industries’ Q4 FY25 results, scheduled for April 25, 2025, are poised to reflect a mixed performance, with Jio and Reliance Retail driving growth amid O2C challenges. Investors will closely monitor Jio’s subscriber and ARPU trends, retail sales and margin outlook, O2C’s resilience, progress in new energy initiatives, and the dividend announcement. Mukesh Ambani’s commentary on IPO plans, tariff strategies, and clean energy timelines will shape market sentiment. Despite near-term headwinds, RIL’s diversified business model, leadership in telecom and retail, and strategic investments in new energy position it for long-term success. As India’s most valuable company, RIL’s Q4 earnings will provide critical insights into its ability to navigate a complex global environment while delivering value to shareholders.